'Oil crunch' looms on horizon
'Oil crunch' looms on horizon
Friday 8th August 2008
A new report has warned an 'oil crunch' looms on the global horizon, unless there is a dramatic reduction in demand.The report – Oil: The Coming Supply Crunch – was conceived by thinktank Chatham House, and argues world supplies of oil will be severely restricted within five to ten years.
If this is the case the price of a barrel of oil could surge past $200, forcing prices for everything from petrol to plastics higher as a result.
Chatham House – which seeks to promote the understanding of major international issues and current affairs – finds investment in new supplies of oil has been and will be inadequate.
This is partly due to incentives for international oil companies to return dividends to shareholders rather than reinvest them, argues the report.
Insufficient funds and expertise were invested in the 1990s to maintain excess capacity to produce crude oil if consumption continues along present trends.
When spare capacity is utilised in the present market, the price of oil rises sharply – as high as $137 a barrel in recent weeks.
Supply has also been curtailed by a resurgence in 'resource nationalism' – with governments starving their national oil companies of investment funds.
"While the forecast is controversial and extremely bullish, even allowing for some increase in capacity over the next few years, a supply crunch appears likely around 2013," explains the report.
"The implication is that it will quickly translate into a price spike although there is a question over how strategic stocks might be used to alleviate this."
If the reports predictions come to fruition its author Paul Stevens, argue governments may be forced to develop interventionist policies in domestic energy sectors.
To ward off a potential crisis, the report recommends helping producers manage 'resource curse' issues, the welcoming of sovereign wealth funds and bringing OPEC into the International Energy Agency's emergency sharing mechanism.
Chris O'Toole
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